The abortion issue is now front and center in our political discourse. On the left, the Democratic Party has become the Pro-Choice party, with virtually no dissent among sitting members of Congress and party leaders. The Republican Party has become the Pro-Life party with a bit more room for dissent among members of Congress and party leaders. A recent Pew poll found that 76% of Democrats are in favor of abortion in all or most cases while 58% of Republicans hold this view. The issue has always been a critical one for many Christian voters of most denominations with some observers asserting that it is the preeminent issue for Evangelical Christians and explains their steadfast support of President Trump.
Where do Americans stand? Well - it looks like we're a bit mixed up. When asked about whether they think abortion should be legal, a majority of Americans favor legal abortion in some or all cases (Pew 2018).
When asked whether they are Pro-Life or Pro-Choice, half of Americans fall in each camp with the Pro-Life gaining ground since the 1990's (Gallup 2018).
For the most part the east and west coast states are Pro-Choice and the interior states and the deep south (less Florida) are Pro-Life. Furthermore, if you go to the source map, you'll see that views on the issue are vary greatly between states.
How prevalent is abortion in America? Well - this question can't be answered with great certainty. The two leading sources of data are the Center for Disease Control and the Guttmacher Institute. Each reports different numbers, using different methodology and sources. A ball park estimate for 2017 blending the two was 878,000 abortions and a total of 3,856,000 live births for an effective abortion rate of 18.5%. The Guttmacher Institute has a slightly lower estimate of around 15% and shows that over time the frequency of abortion is diminishing in America.
So, as a rough number, it appears that 1 in 6 pregnancies ends in abortion.
Why are women choosing abortion? Here is a table from a study by the Guttmacher Institute:
A factor which has changed Americans' attitudes towards abortion is the improvement in survival rates of premature babies. Currently, survival rates (quoted by verywellfamily.com) look something like this:
Based on information from the Quint Boenker Preemie Survival Foundation and the March of Dimes, here is the likelihood of a survival for a baby born prematurely. It's important to note that these percentages are statistics and do not predict the survival of an individual baby.
Basically, children born late in the second trimester have a very good chance of survival with modern medical care. This creates a queasy dichotomy. In hospitals across the nation, fetuses in the second and third trimester are being aborted in one room while in an adjacent room fetuses of the same age are being born, cared for and growing into normal children. If we think about it, this is at odds with our commitment to preserving "life, liberty and the pursuit of happiness" for all Americans. In view of this it is not strange to find 80% of Americans opposed to abortion in the third trimester.
Length of Pregnancy Likelihood of Survival 23 weeks 17 percent 24 weeks 39 percent 25 weeks 50 percent 26 weeks 80 percent 27 weeks 90 percent 28 to 31 weeks 90 to 95 percent 32 to 33 weeks 95 percent 34+ weeks Almost as likely as a full-term baby Sources: March of Dimes, Quint Boenker Preemie Survival Foundation
Roe v. Wade - redux
With new judges appointed by the Trump Administration to the Supreme Court and a clear commitment on the part of the President to appoint judges with at least a skeptical view of Roe v. Wade, it is not surprising to abortion becoming a hot button issue again. Legal scholars on both sides of the abortion issue recognize that the legal grounds for the original decision decriminalizing abortion were shaky. These invoked penumbral rights not explicitly specified in the Constitution but deduced by the judges rendering the verdict. They could easily be "un-deduced". It seems likely that Roe v. Wade will stand for a while but will be chipped away at by challenges from the states and perhaps be reversed in 3 to 5 years. In this event, it is distinctly possible that the Supreme Court may throw the issue back to the states to legislate individually.The coming fight
Against this backdrop, the Republicans and Democrats have polarized the issue in a pre-election year to firm up their bases. The Democratic Party has become a monolithic Pro-Choice party in which no major candidate with Pro-Life views can be nominated. The Republican Party has endorsed a somewhat vague Pro-Choice platform and consequently enjoys rock solid support among conservative Christian voters for whom abortion may be the most important issue in their political decisions. President Trump's decision to appoint Supreme Court justices who seem inclined to overturn Roe v. Wade at some point has put this group of voters in his pocket. Abortion has become an "I win - you lose" issue with each political party intent on shoving their views down the throats of the other.
Is there a way forward?
To date, while we concentrate on building The Alliance Party, the party platform has been long on generalities and short on specifics. This is a very wise move at this stage given the urgent, overriding necessity of just getting the party up and running in all 50 States. Before we know it however, we will be face the glare of hostile media polarized as much as our political parties and we will need to have clear, workable positions on critical issues that provide solutions to our problems. It is never too early to open a discussion because before we know it we are going to have to stake out positions on critical issues of concern to Americans. There is likely no more contentious issue than abortion so why not tackle it now?So - here are some ideas on developing a platform position on this issue. To be very clear, these are just my personal ideas, offered to seed discussion and begin working towards a platform plank on abortion:
- At some time between conception and natural birth, unborn children should be offered the protection of the Constitution.
- The point at which unborn children are afforded the full protection of the Constitution could be decided or ratified by the people of the United States in statewide referendums. Placing this decision in the hands of the people will defuse the weaponized abortion politics which are afflicting our country. In the interim, perhaps this point could be the time at which an unborn child could survive with medical assistance. It appears the great majority of Americans already support this view and it would be readily defensible in the political world.
- Abortion should be permitted at any time to save the life of a mother or to prevent grievous harm coming to her when there is no other option to save the child. We all have the right to defend ourselves.
- As the abortion issue touches on deeply held views of personal freedom, conscience and religious beliefs, The Alliance Party should allow candidates to dissent from national or state platform positions on the abortion issue and not use their acceptance of the party position as a criteria to accept or reject a candidate.
- Recognizing that social, cultural and economic forces work against women who bear children, the provision of care and support to pregnant mothers and mothers of infant children should be made a high priority for state health care services, particularly for women who lack financial or family support.
-- Mike Power
