At this point, there appears to be some good news; current models are a lot less dire than those being discussed just a week ago. The latest (April 7) model prepared by the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) suggests that current outbreak in Nevada will peak on or about April 18 with mean / average estimates of 1080 hospitalizations, 216 ICU hospitalizations and 22 deaths on that date. Their model is shown in the graph below
By the end of the month, we should see the end of the current outbreak.
Unfortunately history suggests this isn't over. There is no cure or vaccine for COVID-19 as yet. A recurrence is likely when the current shut-downs, quarantines, travel restrictions and social distancing are relaxed. During the 1918 Spanish Flu Epidemic this happened as shown in data provided by the National Geographic.
And what about the economic impact...
Until we reach the peak and see daily death rates falling across the country, the economic impact of this pandemic won't be headline news. The stock market appears to be pricing in a rebound but that might reflect the anticipated stimulus cash and not be a good guide to what might be in store for average folks in Nevada.
At this point the entertainment and travel industries look like they are in for a world of hurt. Las Vegas and, to a lesser extent, Reno are likely facing a major protracted slowdown. Regulations will likely keep the major casinos shut well into May. More importantly, business likely won't rebound quickly when they do re-open. Millions of Americans will be at least temporarily out of work, in financial hardship or both. Small businesses will take a big hit. Entertainment, travel and vacations are first to get cut when the belt gets tightened. The airline industry and hospitality industries might lose a couple of big players and those remaining are likely facing drastically lower revenues into the third quarter of this year - at least.
Our natural resource industries may see a rebound once they can get back to work. With trillions of new dollars being created both in America and world-wide, commodity prices at least will probably rise due to inflation. Farmers, ranchers and especially gold miners will likely see good prices for their products in dollar terms and this, coupled with low energy prices, should strengthen bottom lines. Unfortunately, returns to our natural resource industries can't replace the lost revenue in Las Vegas.
This crisis is going to translate into deep cuts in state tax revenue and the current administration deserves credit for beginning to tackle this now, asking departments to come up with $687 million in possible budget cuts for the coming year.
A lot depends on how Washington chooses to get America back on its feet. Hopefully cash will be funneled directly to those who have lost their jobs and small businesses to keep their noses above water until we return to more normal conditions. Don't bet on it once the lobbyists get out of self-isolation. No matter how you cut it, we are facing some very interesting times.
For the moment however, the focus has to be on doing our part to keep each other from catching this bug by complying with reasonable requests made by our state and local governments. I hope you and yours will avoid this scourge and be able to resume normal life soon.
-- Mike Power
