Week three of the impeachment drama and the plot thickens.
We learn that Rep. Adam Schiff, Chairman of the House Intelligence Committee knew about the "surprise whistle blower complaint" weeks in advance of announcing it and his aides were helping draft the complaint. If he knew about it, this calls into question the whole narrative that Speaker Nancy Pelosi was converted to the impeachment camp only when she and the rest of the Democratic Caucus heard about the complaint on the weekend before it was tabled by the committee. A suspicious mind could easily believe the this final eruption was stage-managed for maximum effect.
On the other side, a Presidential Tweet-storm has erupted words like traitor and scum bag being thrown around. While some maintain that the President may be disturbed, Paul Brandus has an intriguing explanation of his reaction to the whole impeachment fracas: As a business man running a private empire for the past 30+ years, he has never had to face this. His reaction may mirror the private reactions of other headstrong business leaders facing opposition; we just get to see the whole business on TV.
Donald Trump executed a corporate takeover of the Republican Party in 2016, marshaling a large block of alienated voters who were choked with both the Republican leadership and the Democrats. He owns the party and the Republican party establishment is being held hostage. Worse, they're suffering from Stockholm Syndrome and, with the recent exception of a few like Jeff Flake and Mitt Romney, are dutifully marching in lock-step with the President.
The Democrats just can't come to terms with the fact that they lost the 2016 election -fair and square - to a reality TV show host who revels in shoving their faces in the dirt. Calls for impeachment rang out before the Inauguration and, with the willing cooperation of the mainstream news media, they have continually turned over rocks, dug up dung and thrown it at the wall to see what sticks - only to discover the President seems to be Teflon-coated. While they may feel they finally have a cut-and-dried case for impeachment there is an air of desperation in this Hail Mary pass. Worse, they face the risk that more than half the electorate may see them as sore losers, trying to undo the result of an election they refuse to accept.
It's possible to see how the hard core, left wing base of the Democratic Party might get behind this final impeachment push but more difficult to see what Speaker Pelosi and moderate Democratic House Members might see in this. Matthew Continetti suggests that there is an end-game for the Democrats . It involves making sure President Trump gets good and sullied going into the election regardless of the price paid. He points out that all things being equal, the President is on a path to re-election. Incumbency, a Democratic presidential field too far off base, and a strong economy may lead to a second term. There is a real chance however that this might be derailed if enough independent moderate voters are persuaded that the President just doesn't deserve a second term by reason of his conduct and the censure of Congress.
Pity the poor moderate independent voter in America these days. Polarization is too weak a word for our current political situation. Like something out of a science fiction novel, both parties seem to be living in parallel, mutually contradictory universes while occupying the same country. The media is no help either with the current climate drawing news organizations into one camp or the other.
So what are the prospects for third party efforts? Third parties need an opening when one of the two extant major parties fails to address voter concerns. The Whigs arose in opposition to Andrew Jackson when there was no opposition at the end of the Era of Good Feelings. The Republicans rose from nothing to the Presidency only when the Whigs failed to address the slavery issue. Since then, third party efforts have been regional, sectional or centered on an individual (Teddy Roosevelt's Bull Moose Party or Ross Perot's Reform Party). Ross Perot probably did best, aided by the fact both the Democrats and Republicans had tacked to the center and neither party was addressing lunch bucket issues that resonated with middle and working class voters.
Donald Trump could be viewed as the most successful one-man third party effort in American history. Rather than tilting at the two major parties, he sensed weakness in one and just took it over. He saw that both political parties were ignoring the interests of a large group of Americans, stuck himself in front of them and took over the Republican party. This might become the wave of the future. Imitation being the sincerest form of flattery, Tom Steyer is trying the same trick on the Democrats.
The next election might be a real donnybrook with both of the main parties ending up like the Ginham Dog and the Calico Cat. Perhaps when the dust is settled, Americans will want a break and look to a moderate third party who can bind wounds and move the country forward with some measure of consensus. It might not be a great election cycle for a moderate third party to make headlines but its a great time to build one. We will need one soon.
-- Mike Power
